OAK⇄CHW

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$16.0M net +0.8

received +$0.8M−$7.2M ± $33M expected surplus · −$10.4M realized received 4.7 ± 4 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2003 odds 13% → 19% (+5.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark JohnsonC·27y·L/R

+$3.2M+$3.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.76/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Joe ValentineP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#789 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Keith FoulkeP·30y·R/R

−$4.0M−$12.2M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 2.0± 2 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

1.35/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$16.0M net -0.8

received +$19.2M+$19.2M ± $37M expected surplus · −$26.4M realized received 4.2 ± 5 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2003 odds 78% → 70% (-8.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Billy KochP·28y·R/R

+$14.8M+$14.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$27.2M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.41/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.85/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Daylan HoltRF·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#90 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Neal CottsP·23y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

#69 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.