MIL⇄TBR

MILMIL David Stearns net +$45.6M net +1.5

received +$48.8M+$48.8M ± $45M expected surplus · +$143.2M realized received 9.2 ± 6 expected · 16.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2021 odds 40% → 50% (+10.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Willy AdamesSS·25y·R/R

+$38.7M+$38.7M± $39M exp surplusrealized +$143.2M 6.6± 5 exp WARrealized 15.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

1.65/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Trevor RichardsP·28y·R/R

+$9.9M+$9.9M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.70/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$45.6M net -1.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $23M expected surplus · +$97.6M realized received 1.6 ± 3 expected · 14.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2021 odds 90% → 86% (-4.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Drew RasmussenP·25y·R/R

+$3.0M+$3.0M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$92.8M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized 13.4

Prior

#31 overall draft pick → 0.36/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

J. P. FeyereisenP·28y·R/R

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

#488 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.55 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.