KCR⇄CHW

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net +$10.4M net +1.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$10.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 1.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2008 odds 2% → 2% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Paulo OrlandoOF·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$10.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$10.4M net -1.7

received +$4.8M+$0.8M ± $10M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2008 odds 40% → 40% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Horacio RamírezP·28y·L/L

+$4.6M+$1.1M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.