MIL⇄KCR

MILMIL Sal Bando net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.9 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Chris EddyP·26y·L/L

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#78 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Herk Robinson net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mark KieferP·27y·R/R

−$3.2M−$3.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#538 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.