ANA⇄WSN

ANAANA Perry Minasian net +$2.4M net +0.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $7M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2025 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andrew ChafinP·35y·R/L

+$2.2M+$2.2M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Luis GarcíaP·38y·R/R

−$0.7M−$0.7M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Mike DeBartolo net −$2.4M net -0.6

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2025 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sam Brown1B·23y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#354 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jake EderP·26y·L/L

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#104 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.