BOS⇄NYY

BOSBOS Chaim Bloom net +$0.8M net +0.4

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.9 ± 3 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2021 odds 50% → 54% (+3.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam OttavinoP·35y·B/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.66/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Frank GermanP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#127 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$0.8M net -0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2021 odds 45% → 41% (-3.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.