TEX⇄DET

TEXTEX Chris Young net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2025 odds 16% → 16% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Scott Harris net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2025 odds 28% → 27% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Codi HeuerP·28y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.1M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#168 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.35/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.