LAD⇄MIL

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$0.8M net +0.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $8M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2021 odds 97% → 97% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Corey KnebelP·29y·R/R

+$1.5M+$1.5M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL David Stearns net +$0.8M net -0.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2021 odds 54% → 50% (-3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Leo Crawford

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.