DET⇄TEX

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net +$20.0M net +2.7

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $33M expected surplus · +$20.0M realized received 0.5 ± 4 expected · 2.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2008 odds 2% → 2% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Armando GalarragaP·26y·R/R

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$20.0M 0.5± 4 exp WARrealized 2.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.3/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net −$20.0M net -2.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $7M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2008 odds 17% → 13% (-4.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Hernandez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.