MIL⇄TEX

MILMIL Matt Arnold net +$0.8M net +0.5

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $15M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2025 odds 75% → 77% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Grant AndersonP·28y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

#628 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

-0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Chris Young net −$0.8M net -0.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2025 odds 18% → 16% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mason MolinaP·21y·R/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#215 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.