KCR⇄ATL

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net +$28.0M net +3.7

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $22M expected surplus · +$19.2M realized received 0.8 ± 3 expected · 3.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2007 odds 3% → 3% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kyle DaviesP·23y·R/R

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$19.2M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 3.9

Prior

Composite #53.0 pedigree (Baseball America #53 (2005)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL John Schuerholz net −$28.0M net -3.7

received −$5.6M−$15.2M ± $9M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2007 odds 41% → 43% (+2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Octavio DotelP·33y·R/R

−$5.4M−$15.2M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.66/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.