TBR⇄KCR

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$14.4M net +2.4

received +$16.8M+$16.8M ± $44M expected surplus · +$14.4M realized received 3.3 ± 6 expected · 2.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2020 odds 58% → 62% (+3.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brett PhillipsOF·26y·L/R

+$17.1M+$17.1M± $44M exp surplusrealized +$14.4M 3.3± 6 exp WARrealized 2.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.66/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net −$14.4M net -2.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2020 odds 7% → 6% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Lucius Fox3B/SS·22y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.