ATL⇄TEX

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net +$0.8M net +1.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $7M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2019 odds 36% → 33% (-2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris MartinP·33y·R/R

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

#523 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

2.8 control yrs × 0.54 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net −$0.8M net -1.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2019 odds 1% → 1% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kolby AllardP·21y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#14 overall draft pick → 0.35/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.