ARI⇄SFG

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net +$3.2M net +0.5

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $15M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 1998 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ricky PickettP·28y·L/L

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#773 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.61 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$3.2M net -0.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $7M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1998 odds 62% → 60% (-2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris JonesOF·32y·R/R

+$2.8M+$2.1M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.49/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.