KCR⇄PIT

KCRKCR Herk Robinson net −$4.0M net +0.4

received −$1.6M−$2.4M ± $13M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1991 odds 15% → 16% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carmelo Martínez1B/OF·30y·R/R

−$2.0M−$2.7M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.73/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Larry Doughty net +$4.0M net -0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1991 odds 83% → 82% (-1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Victor ColeP·23y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#361 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.