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June 6, 2018

KCR⇄ARI

KCR won this trade +$7.2M surplus KCR won this trade +1.2 WAR
KCRKCR Dayton Moore net +$7.2M net +1.2
received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 2.4 ± 4 expected · 0.2 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2018 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Gabe SpeierP·23y·L/L
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2
Prior
#563 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Elvis LucianoP·18y·R/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
ARIARI Mike Hazen net −$7.2M net -1.2
received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $7M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · -1.0 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2018 odds 12% → 11% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Jon JayOF·33y·L/L
+$5.0M+$5.0M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized -1.0
Prior
league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 1.2/yr over 2.2 seasons
Talent
0.88/yr blended
Horizon
1.0 control yr

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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