BAL⇄MIL

BALBAL Frank Wren net +$1.6M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.8 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1999 odds 44% → 45% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Todd DunnDH/OF·28y·R/R

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#35 overall draft pick → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Sal Bando net −$1.6M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $14M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1999 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Lyle MoutonOF·30y·R/R

+$2.4M+$2.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.36/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.69 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.