TEX⇄CHW

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$1.6M net +0.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2016 odds 5% → 5% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt BallP·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#333 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$1.6M net -0.3

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $30M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2016 odds 13% → 12% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Anthony RanaudoP·26y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#39 overall draft pick → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.8/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.