OAK⇄HOU

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$4.8M net +1.8

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $27M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 1.5 ± 3 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2004 odds 32% → 33% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kirk SaarloosP·25y·R/R

+$4.9M+$4.9M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 1.5± 3 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

#86 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net −$4.8M net -1.8

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $10M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2004 odds 72% → 71% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chad HarvilleP·27y·R/R

−$1.0M−$1.0M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

#63 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.05/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.