LAD⇄NYY

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$2.4M net +0.4

received +$16.8M+$16.8M ± $10M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 2.3 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2022 odds 99% → 99% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joey GalloOF·28y·L/R

+$16.7M+$16.7M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 2.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.7/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

2.34/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$2.4M net -0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2022 odds 96% → 96% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Clayton BeeterP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#66 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.