ARI⇄CLE

ARIARI Mike Hazen net −$3.2M net +0.0

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $11M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 1.6 ± 1 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2025 odds 22% → 25% (+3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh Naylor1B·28y·L/L

+$6.6M+$6.6M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.6± 1 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.57/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net +$3.2M net +0.0

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $26M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 1.9 ± 3 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2025 odds 6% → 5% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Slade CecconiP·26y·R/R

+$5.7M+$5.7M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 1.9± 3 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

#33 overall draft pick → 0.31/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.