ANA⇄COL

ANAANA Bill Stoneman net +$189.6M net +22.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$186.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 22.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2001 odds 9% → 10% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chone Figgins3B/OF·23y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$186.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 22.2

Prior

#132 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net −$189.6M net -22.6

received +$2.4M+$1.6M ± $9M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2001 odds 28% → 26% (-1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kimera BarteeOF·28y·B/R

+$2.5M+$1.8M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.34/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.