ATL⇄DET

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$0.8M net +0.2

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $18M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2007 odds 42% → 43% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wil LedezmaP·26y·L/L

+$3.6M+$3.6M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.57/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net −$0.8M net -0.2

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $28M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.2 ± 4 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2007 odds 53% → 52% (-1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Macay McBrideP·24y·L/L

+$8.1M+$8.1M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#24 overall draft pick → 0.36/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.54/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.