NYM⇄KCR

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net +$81.6M net +7.7

received +$26.4M+$26.4M ± $40M expected surplus · +$76.8M realized received 3.9 ± 5 expected · 7.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1999 odds 71% → 73% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Glendon RuschP·24y·L/L

+$26.4M+$26.4M± $40M exp surplusrealized +$76.8M 3.9± 5 exp WARrealized 7.0

Prior

Composite #89.0 pedigree (Baseball America #89 (1997)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.96/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Herk Robinson net −$81.6M net -7.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $23M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1999 odds 3% → 3% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dan MurrayP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

#273 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.