ARI⇄OAK

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net +$1.6M net +0.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2001 odds 81% → 82% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan ChristensonOF·27y·R/R

+$0.4M+$0.4M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$1.6M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $19M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2001 odds 92% → 92% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rob RyanOF·28y·L/L

−$0.1M−$0.1M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#785 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.70 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.