ANA⇄NYY

ANAANA Mike Port net −$13.6M net +0.2

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $0M expected surplus · −$13.6M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1990 odds 28% → 24% (-3.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dave WinfieldOF·38y·R/R

−$4.9M−$4.9M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$13.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.5/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

2.05/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Hardy Peterson net +$13.6M net -0.2

received +$40.0M+$40.0M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 4.1 ± 2 expected · 1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1990 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike WittP·29y·R/R

+$39.6M+$39.6M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 4.1± 2 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.9/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

2.73/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.