ARI⇄PIT

ARIARI Mike Hazen net +$3.2M net +0.6

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2017 odds 65% → 68% (+2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Frank DuncanP·25y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#401 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Neal Huntington net −$3.2M net -0.6

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $26M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 2.2 ± 3 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2017 odds 4% → 4% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Philip Gosselin2B/3B·28y·R/R

+$6.2M+$6.2M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 2.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.58/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.