PIT⇄KCR

PITPIT Larry Doughty net −$3.2M net +0.3

received +$16.0M+$9.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 2.8 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1992 odds 26% → 27% (+1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kirk GibsonOF·35y·L/L

+$15.7M+$9.9M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 2.8± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.94/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Herk Robinson net +$3.2M net -0.3

received −$4.0M−$5.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1992 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Neal HeatonP·32y·L/L

−$3.8M−$5.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.36/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.