ANA⇄OAK

ANAANA Mike Port net −$9.6M net +3.5

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $0M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 3.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1985 odds 20% → 20% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Don SuttonP·40y·R/R

−$0.7M−$0.7M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 3.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Sandy Alderson net +$9.6M net -3.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $31M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.5 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 1985 odds 5% → 5% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jerome NelsonOF

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#69 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Bob Sharpnack

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.