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February 17, 2021

TBR⇄BOS

TBR won this trade +$5.6M surplus TBR won this trade +2.7 WAR
TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$5.6M net +2.7
received −$44.0M+$0.0M ± $16M expected surplus · +$11.2M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 4.1 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2021 odds 85% → 86% (+1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Chris MazzaP·31y·R/R
+$0.6M+$0.6M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3
Prior
#838 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 0.8/yr over 0.5 season
Talent
0.39/yr blended
Horizon
3.9 control yrs × 0.46 age decline
Jeffrey SpringsP·28y·L/L
−$44.3M−$0.9M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$12.8M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized 4.4
Prior
#888 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 0.1/yr over 1.3 season
Talent
0.14/yr blended
Horizon
7.0 control yrs × 0.43 age decline
BOSBOS Chaim Bloom net −$5.6M net -2.7
received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · 1.4 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2021 odds 56% → 54% (-2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Nick Sogard2B·23y·S/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.4
Prior
#368 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Ronaldo Hernandez
+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0
Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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