ANA⇄DET

ANAANA Bill Bavasi net +$20.8M net +2.7

received +$27.2M+$27.2M ± $18M expected surplus · +$16.0M realized received 3.7 ± 2 expected · 4.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1995 odds 49% → 62% (+13.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tony Phillips2B/OF·36y·B/R

+$26.8M+$26.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$16.0M 3.7± 2 exp WARrealized 4.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.9/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

3.38/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.99 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Joe Klein net −$20.8M net -2.7

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $30M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 4.0 ± 4 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1995 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chad CurtisOF·26y·R/R

+$20.3M+$20.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 4.0± 4 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

1.33/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.