CLE⇄ATL

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net +$21.6M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$0.8M ± $8M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2021 odds 6% → 5% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pablo Sandoval3B·34y·B/R

+$1.7M+$0.4M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.71 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net −$21.6M net +0.0

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$21.6M realized received 1.4 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2021 odds 34% → 38% (+3.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eddie RosarioOF·29y·L/R

+$5.9M+$5.9M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$21.6M 1.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

1.43/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.