BOS⇄PIT

BOSBOS Chaim Bloom net +$3.2M net +0.8

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $12M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2021 odds 55% → 54% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Austin DavisP·28y·L/L

−$1.2M−$1.2M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#352 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Ben Cherington net −$3.2M net -0.8

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $22M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.1 ± 3 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2021 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Michael Chavis1B/2B·25y·R/R

−$3.2M−$3.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.1± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.