ARI⇄MIN

ARIARI Mike Hazen net +$2.4M net +0.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.5 ± 4 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2017 odds 68% → 68% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

J. R. MurphyC·26y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.5± 4 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Derek Falvey net −$2.4M net -0.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2017 odds 27% → 27% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gabriel MoyaP·22y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.