MIA⇄DET

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net +$2.4M net +0.3

received +$19.2M+$19.2M ± $34M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 4.8 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1996 odds 29% → 30% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt Brunson2B·21y·S/R

+$18.8M+$18.8M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 4.8± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#9 overall draft pick → 0.80/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.80/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Randy Smith net −$2.4M net -0.3

received −$0.8M−$1.6M ± $8M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1996 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Randy VeresP·30y·R/R

−$0.8M−$1.6M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

-0.13/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.