HOU⇄NYM

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net +$7.2M net +2.7

received +$28.8M+$28.8M ± $45M expected surplus · +$87.2M realized received 5.7 ± 6 expected · 9.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2000 odds 28% → 9% (-18.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Octavio DotelP·26y·R/R

+$19.8M+$19.8M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$90.4M 3.0± 4 exp WARrealized 8.7

Prior

Composite #45.0 pedigree (Baseball America #45 (1999)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.33/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Roger CedeñoOF·25y·B/R

+$6.4M+$6.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.72/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Kyle KesselP·24y·R/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#1516 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net −$7.2M net -2.7

received +$48.0M+$4.8M ± $26M expected surplus · +$80.0M realized received 6.4 ± 3 expected · 6.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2000 odds 26% → 57% (+30.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike HamptonP·27y·R/L

+$49.6M+$20.4M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$86.4M 4.3± 3 exp WARrealized 5.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.1/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

2.90/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Derek BellOF·31y·R/R

−$1.4M−$15.3M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 2.1± 2 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

1.47/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.