CHW⇄ANA

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$24.0M net +2.0

received +$5.6M−$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · +$11.2M realized received 3.5 ± 2 expected · 3.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2008 odds 30% → 40% (+10.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Orlando CabreraSS·33y·R/R

+$5.4M−$2.3M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$11.2M 3.5± 2 exp WARrealized 3.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.3/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

2.38/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Bill Stoneman net −$24.0M net -2.0

received +$16.8M+$4.8M ± $19M expected surplus · −$12.8M realized received 3.4 ± 2 expected · 1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2008 odds 25% → 17% (-7.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jon GarlandP·28y·R/R

+$16.8M+$4.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$12.8M 3.4± 2 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.36/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.1/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

2.27/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.