TOR⇄SEA

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net +$2.4M net +0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2022 odds 84% → 85% (+1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tyler Keenan3B·23y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#107 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$2.4M net -0.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $11M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2022 odds 29% → 28% (-1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan BoruckiP·28y·L/L

+$0.9M+$0.9M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#475 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.