MIA⇄OAK

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net +$12.0M net +2.4

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $28M expected surplus · +$11.2M realized received 2.0 ± 4 expected · 2.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1994 odds 2% → 2% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kurt Abbott2B/SS·25y·R/R

+$8.7M+$8.7M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$11.2M 2.0± 4 exp WARrealized 2.4

Prior

#398 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.36/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Sandy Alderson net −$12.0M net -2.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $29M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 1994 odds 3% → 3% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kerwin MooreOF·23y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#413 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.