ARI⇄KCR

ARIARI Mike Hazen net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Sam Lewis

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Peter O'Brien1B/OF·26y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#94 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.