ATL⇄OAK

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$89.6M net +22.0

received +$64.8M+$64.8M ± $19M expected surplus · +$81.6M realized received 5.3 ± 2 expected · 21.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2005 odds 50% → 65% (+14.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim HudsonP·29y·R/R

+$64.7M+$64.7M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$81.6M 5.3± 2 exp WARrealized 21.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.1/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

3.52/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$89.6M net -22.0

received +$54.4M+$54.4M ± $71M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 11.6 ± 9 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2005 odds 64% → 49% (-14.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Charles ThomasOF·26y·L/L

+$36.2M+$36.2M± $56M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 6.6± 7 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

#580 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.7/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

1.31/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dan MeyerP·23y·R/L

+$12.7M+$12.7M± $36M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 3.5± 4 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

Composite #43.0 pedigree (Baseball America #43 (2005)) → 0.66/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Juan CruzP·26y·R/R

+$5.3M+$5.3M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.5± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.