OAK⇄DET

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$0.8M net +1.2

received +$0.8M+$0.0M ± $12M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 1998 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bip Roberts2B/OF·34y·B/R

+$1.0M+$0.2M± $12M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.06/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Randy Smith net +$0.8M net -1.2

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $17M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1998 odds 7% → 6% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason Wood1B·28y·R/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#307 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.64 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.