MIL⇄BOS

MILMIL David Stearns net +$21.6M net +1.2

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $14M expected surplus · +$17.6M realized received 2.6 ± 2 expected · 2.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2022 odds 24% → 38% (+13.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Hunter RenfroeOF·30y·R/R

+$12.1M+$12.1M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$17.6M 2.6± 2 exp WARrealized 2.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.37/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Chaim Bloom net −$21.6M net -1.2

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $30M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 3.5 ± 4 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2022 odds 9% → 5% (-4.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alex Binelas1B·22y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#86 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

David Hamilton2B/SS·24y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

#253 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jackie BradleyOF·32y·L/R

−$0.7M−$1.0M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.72/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.