OAK⇄COL

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$8.8M net +1.3

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $20M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 3.2 ± 2 expected · 1.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2001 odds 90% → 92% (+2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jermaine DyeOF·27y·R/R

+$7.4M+$7.4M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 3.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.3/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

2.14/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net −$8.8M net -1.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $46M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.6 ± 6 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2001 odds 32% → 26% (-5.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mario EncarnaciónOF·25y·R/R

+$4.2M+$4.2M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

Composite #90.0 prospect (Baseball America #90 (2000)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.23/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Todd BelitzP·25y·L/L

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#144 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

José Ortiz2B·24y·R/R

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -4.1/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.05/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.