MIA⇄ARI

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net +$2.4M net +0.7

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $12M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Reid CorneliusP·28y·R/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

#284 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net −$2.4M net -0.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Walt WhiteIF·26y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#936 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.