OAK⇄LAD

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2021 odds 32% → 32% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cody ThomasOF·26y·L/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#401 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Adam KolarekP·32y·L/L

+$0.5M+$0.5M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

3.3 control yrs × 0.44 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $27M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 2.3 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2021 odds 97% → 97% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gus VarlandP·24y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#413 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Sheldon Neuse2B/3B·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#58 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.