BAL⇄PIT

BALBAL Roland Hemond net +$90.4M net +11.9

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $25M expected surplus · +$90.4M realized received 2.0 ± 3 expected · 11.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1989 odds 4% → 9% (+4.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Randy Milligan1B·27y·R/R

+$4.5M+$4.5M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$90.4M 2.0± 3 exp WARrealized 11.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Larry Doughty net −$90.4M net -11.9

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $12M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1989 odds 18% → 8% (-9.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pete Blohm

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.