COL⇄OAK

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$8.0M net +0.5

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $11M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Robin JenningsOF·29y·L/L

−$1.0M−$1.0M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#795 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.9/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$8.0M net -0.5

received +$14.4M+$14.4M ± $14M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 2.0 ± 2 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ron GantOF·36y·R/R

+$14.6M+$14.6M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 2.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.85/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.