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July 31, 2025

TEX⇄ARI

unsettledToo soon to call — players still accruing.
TEXTEX Chris Young net +$4.0M net +0.8
received +$17.6M+$17.6M ± $9M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 1.7 ± 1 expected · 0.8 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2025 odds 14% → 16% (+2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Merrill KellyP·36y·R/R
+$18.0M+$18.0M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 1.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.8
Prior
league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 2.6/yr over 1.9 season
Talent
1.66/yr blended
Horizon
1.0 control yr
ARIARI Mike Hazen net −$4.0M net -0.8
received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $38M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.9 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2025 odds 29% → 25% (-3.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Kohl DrakeP·24y·L/L
+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#319 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
6.0 control yrs
David HagamanP·22y·R/R
+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#133 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
6.0 control yrs
Mitch BrattP·21y·L/L
+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#134 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
6.0 control yrs
Fan verdict — who overpaid?

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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