ANA⇄DET

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net +$21.6M net +2.4

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $33M expected surplus · +$19.2M realized received 0.3 ± 4 expected · 2.8 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

José ÁlvarezP·25y·L/L

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$19.2M 0.3± 4 exp WARrealized 2.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.06/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net −$21.6M net -2.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Andrew Romine3B/SS·28y·B/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#178 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.61 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.